". . .have there ever been deviations from the norm that can be reliably construed as actual supernatural interventions?
Of course not."
How do you know? You don't.
I do.
The key to understanding my answer is your phrase "reliably construed."
Physical law is built on human experience. We do not believe that gravity holds because of any "law" that we've formulated to describe our observations. We believe that gravity is a fact because of the observations themselves. We believe gravity holds because every RELIABLE human observation that we've had or that we know anything about says that mass attracts mass. Billions upon billions of observations, both our own and those of other people, have combined to forge our unshakable belief that mass attracts mass.
Does this mean then that it is impossible for some mass somewhere, sometime
not to be attracted by mass?
No (despite Ragnar's claim) it doesn't. It's not impossible. It's always possible that at some time in the past a mass was not attracted by mass or that some mass might not be attracted by mass at some point in the future.
But given overwhelming human experience is that a reasonable conclusion for someone to draw in a particular situation? If we see a person hovering three feet off the ground in mid-air should we jump to the conclusion that the person is defying gravity?
No, instead we should believe that we are being deceived; that it is some kind of trick; that it's a dream or a hallucination; that it's an optical illusion; etc. About the last thing we should believe is that a person really is defying gravity by hovering in the air by his own power.
If it is next to impossible for us to believe our own senses when our own senses tell us that an intervention in well-confirmed physical law has occurred, then how can it ever be reasonable to believe someone else's account that he or she has witnessed such an intervention?
It cannot be reasonable.
Is it rational to trust in the experiences that others claim to have had, if you have compelling reasons to trust their claims? Absolutely.
What might constitute a "compelling reason" to take the word of a human being -- a human being who is capable of misinterpreting any experience that he has, who is capable of deceiving or of being deceived -- who claims to have witnessed an event that contradicts the experience of virtually every other human being on the planet?
Sincerity of belief is NOT a compelling reason to believe that such a believed claim is true because we all know people who have sincerely believed false claims. We ourselves have believed false claims.
Any human being can be mistaken. Any human being can deceive or be deceived. No human being is infallible. Thus, simply because a person interprets an experience in a certain way can never mean that his interpretation is absolutely infallibly correct.
You have to say yes to that, or else you'll have to dismiss all sorts of facts about the world you take to be 'scientific.'
Not true. Scientific facts
agree with the vast bulk of human experience. If they do not, then they are not scientific facts. A scientific fact above all else is commonsense. A scientific fact takes human observations and interprets them as simply and as coherently as is possible.
Take quantum mechanics, for example. As difficult as it is to imagine that quantum mechanics is an accurate representation of reality, the plain fact of the matter is that that theory agrees with human observation more than any other theory that man has yet to devise. If at some point in the future we make observations that contradict quantum mechanics then the theory will either be altered to take into account those new observations or it will be abandoned altogether.
This is because once a scientific 'fact' (or theory) is disconfirmed by experience it is no longer a scientific fact (or theory) for it has then become falsified.
Thus a 'scientific fact' is the polar opposite of a claim that disputes the bulk of human experience.
I don't doubt you would say yes.
But I don't say 'yes.'
It is only irrational to accept 'deviations' if you don't have compelling reasons to do so.
No, it is irrational every time to believe another person's claim that he has witnessed a person walking on water because there can be no compelling reason to believe that he has witnessed the event that he claims to have witnessed.
It is not rational to reject such claims just because you know "Of course not" that deviations don't happen.
No, it is rational every time to disbelieve another person's claim that he has witnessed a person walking on water because it is about as certain as anything can be certain that the person is mistaken or was duped or hallucinated or is simply lying than it is that he actually witnessed an event that flies in the face of all human experience of the world.
If the person can somehow demonstrate his personal infallibility then the situation changes; otherwise, no -- it's always rational to disbelieve the guy's claim.
If you don't expect all facts of the world to be determined by you yourself, you'll have to be open both to claims of regularities AND deviations.
We each determine for ourselves which facts of the world that we believe. We can choose to believe facts that agree with our own personal experiences and those of the vast bulk of humanity or we can choose to believe facts that we desperately hope are true even if those 'facts' fly in the face of our own personal experiences and those of the vast bulk of humanity.
Especially -- ESPECIALLY! -- should we be skeptical of a belief that we hold based solely on another person's fallible and extraordinarily unusual interpretation of his or her experience when that interpretation just so happens to confirm a preexisting bias of ours.
If you don't expect all facts of the world to be determined by you yourself, you'll have to be open both to claims of regularities AND deviations.
Otherwise, you're begging the question. Sorry, its as simple as that.
This leads me to believe that you don't understand the nature of the claim that I make. I do not claim that the physical laws of the universe are absolutely true. I claim only that we have very good reason to believe that the physical laws of the universe that humans have so far compiled are accurate descriptions of our collective human experience in the universe to date. Thus, we can have no compelling reason to believe that any individual, fallible human's interpretation of his or her own personal experience which contradicts these laws (which, again, themselves represent the epitome of human experience) is correct.