Liz, I thought that that website was very good on the serious dilemmas that we face in the short term, particularly in the area of how important petrochemicals are to the international food supply. We have to support over 6.5 billion people today, and that number is growing rapidly. Without oil-based fertilizer products and pesticides, we may face famines that have not been seen in decades.
I agree completely. When I first read that site, I was in shock for a few days - okay actually weeks - about just how utterly dependent upon oil we have become. I was also a little ticked at the stupidity of the last hundred years that put us in this mess. I'm just as concerned about the oil products we rely on - plastic and medicines are two of the biggies.
What the website did not say much about was the convergence of that with the environmental crisis. Diminishing oil stocks will force us to turn to coal, which could dramatically increase carbon pollution.
It may not be in his main article, but he has a news and updates page where he posts relevant links on an almost daily basis. He links to several articles about global warming and the implications of increased coal usage on a regular basis.
In general, though, all of this will be slightly mitigated by the fact that we will switch over to alternative sources of fuel.
You're more optimistic than I am. I think it's too little too late. I don't know if you saw the link to a recent article where Saudi Arabia acknowledged their oil production is down 400,000 barrels per day. That's an ominous sign. A good book to explain why is Twilight in the Desert - for you or the lurkers.
Also, the destabilization of the Middle East, thanks to US foreign policy, will have a silver lining in that it will slow down the gutting of world oil supplies . At the same time, it will bring on economic hardships sooner than expected.
Have you read The Fourth Turning? It was written in the '90's. Very interesting. Puts a very depressing twist on 9/11.
Is it me being paranoid, or does anyone else feel the US - heck the world - is in the early waves of the Perfect Storm? I see so many areas which trouble me greatly.
1. 75% of mortgages written in the last 5 years have been "creative" - interest only, ARM's, reverse amortization, etc. What makes this scary is the majority of people have no clue that their rate increase will make their payment increase. Since the underwriting standards have been loosened the last ten years, the bulk of these people are already maxed out. As rates increase, it could lead to massive foreclosures.
2. The Baby Boomers are about to start retiring. What makes this bad is so much of their money is locked into 401(k)'s - the stock market. The first hiccup and they'll pull their money out - big crash.
3. We are sitting on the largest deficit ever. No nation in the history of the world has been able to sustain a per capita national debt that exceeded the per capita income. We are dangerously close - or have already exceeded - that amount.
4. Which leads to social security. As the boomers start retiring, they'll cease being tax payers and start being tax takers. I don't see how we can sustain such a deficit and pay for the boomers retirement.
5. The Middle East. Where do I begin? The Fourth Turning addresses why that is so hugely significant much better than I can.
6. GM is already in serious trouble. One-sixth of our economy is the automotive sector. Automotive is already selling itself to death. The sweeter the deals on new cars, the quicker the used ones depreciate. We bought a new Aztec a few years ago. Ten months later we were upside down $12,000. We're still around $10,000 upside down. I know we're not the only ones in this boat. There's a lot of people out there stuck in a gas guzzler they can't afford at $3+ a gallon. I was a controller for a GM dealer for ten years prior to being a stay-at-home homeschooling mom. Toward the end, I was very concerned because the ratio of new to used sold was getting way out of whack. The new car craze is going to crash eventually.
If any one of these areas goes, the domino effect will be bad. Not just here, but worldwide. China has such a hot economy today, but if ours goes to crap, theirs will too since they're making their money on us.
Of course, we could all fry first. I read the other day that our particle pollution is actually shielding us from the worst of the global warming. When we stop pumping more pollution into the atmosphere, we'll lose that protective layer.
Not good. Not good. Does anyone have a more optimistic outlook?
