Pages: 1 2 3 [4]   Go Down

Author Topic: Presidential Election predictions  (Read 5057 times)

0 Members and 2 Guests are viewing this topic.

Dannyboy

  • Predominant User
  • *
  • Feedback: +18/-3
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 854
Re: Presidential Election predictions
« Reply #60 on: November 05, 2008, 04:23:15 PM »

Also, interestingly, while browsing around Worldnetdaily (and just before i had a shower, obviously), i came across this article http://www.worldnetdaily.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=78574 which seemed at the very least abivalent about the option of secession.  Oddly that ties in to a book set about 100 years in the future which i have just finished reading - "Thirteen" by Richard Morgan.  In it, the southern/central states of the Union have split off from the more secular "Rim states", and formed a separate, not entirely progressive country called "Jesusland".

So, we'll see who got it right.  You or that guy.   [smile
Logged
If God has a problem with the way i live my life then let him tell me, not you.

"Denying your own experience of reality is never a good step, no matter how many are arrayed against you" - Spero by AR Horvath

Anthony Horvath

  • Administrator
  • sntjohnny? I'm sntjohnny!
  • *
  • Feedback: +28/-41
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 8493
    • http://www.sntjohnny.com
Re: Presidential Election predictions
« Reply #61 on: November 05, 2008, 07:29:00 PM »

Or a distant third possibility is that you're right.  :)

"And you can see why - those differences are often used as a rationale for suppressing women's progressive empowerment.  i don't think that it's the right way to go about having that debate, but i understand their motives."

heh sure.  Denying obvious biological realities is perfectly reasonable as long as the motives are pure.

"These differences don't matter, so they shouldn't be suppressed out of fear that they will be used for repressive purposes.  The facts are the facts, regardless of what use they are put to, dont you agree?"

Liberals have different ideas about 'repressive purposes' and some differences do matter.  Let's say that you are trapped on the roof of your flat and the place is a burning inferno.   You are hurt and can't come down the ladder that is offered.  You'll have to be carried.  You look down and you see the 6"2 250 pound male firefighter standing next to a 5"2 100 pound female one.  Which do you want to come up and carry you down?

We may quibble:  but there are 5"2 100 pound males we wouldn't prefer, either.  Statistically, though, you're more likely to have men who can do this job then women.  This is a fact and facts are facts, regardless of what use they are put to, don't you agree?

Now, in this example it will so happen that the fire dept has had trials and tests and a fair amount of men didn't make the cut, either.  Why?  Because in this occupation 'differences matter.'  You don't want to employ weaklings and incompetents just because because life hangs in the balance.  It is a simple fact of reality that men are more likely going to make the cut than women.

Now, as far as I'm concerned- and we can see if maybe you are more sexist than I am- if a woman can do the same work with the same ease as a man (in the fire dept scenario, here) then I have no objections to the woman having the job.  If, however, the woman only has to lift 100 pounds to get on the dept while men have to lift 200 pounds, I have a real problem with that.

Liberal feminism is comfortable with this.  They find ways to avoid it.  For example, they begrudgingly admit the principle but they get around it by requiring the applicant to lift 150% of their own body weight (or something like).  So, our 100 pound woman needs only to be able to lift 150 lbs and then she's in!  Hooorah!  Statistically, women are going to be on the lighter end and under this scenario, then, be required to lift less than the statistically more likely to be heavier men.  Which is just swell, of course, because if we're lucky the only people who need to be saved will weigh no more than 150% of a woman's weight.

This is coming from a man who has personal experience on the matter.  I applied to be a fire fighter once upon a time.  Out of some 3,000 applicants, only about 700 passed the physical requirements (150% of your weight lifting, etc) and out of these 700 I finished in the top 98% percentile for the test scores.  Do the math:  I would have been about in the top 50, easily.  They only took 125.  After considerations for race and gender, I dropped to 140th in line, and did not get the job.

Don't get me wrong- I'm not personally traumatized or anything, here.  But I do see the dangers of glib assertions that 'differences don't matter' when liberals are at work to 'make things equal.'

"1) Hamas are people too (shocker!).  Mostly they live in the epicentre of this on-going conflict, and mostly they want peace, because they want their children to be able to grow up and go to school without catching an Israeli army bullet in the chest."

lol Hamas wants to drive Israel into the ocean.   this is like saying that Al Qaeda are people too.  They also 'mostly' want peace.   They don't want to have to worry about their children catching an American bullet in their chest.  And oh yea, they want every non-Muslim in the world either exterminated or living under Sharia law.  heh

"2) This is also not a shock.  You have to be trying really hard to tie this in to Obama's victory (he's not even in charge for 60 days or so)."

It isn't a shock but I don't think it is so difficult to tie this into Obama's victory.  But hey, when Russia is seeking to place its missles in France instead of Poland, don't worry, by that time perhaps we'll have time to elect another president to rescue ya'll.  ;) 

"i mean, i know you have a prophecy to fulfill and all, but really."

I don't know what you mean by this.

Logged
Today's Favorite Quote:  "The UN is like GI Joe - an organization with the goal of world peace. Difference being one of them actually achieves their goals."  EndBringer

Yesterday's Fav: "I love when it all comes down to semantics, because that usually means I get to pwn someone."  Sir Somebody Something, Deep Truth, Trent, Solaris Paradox

Dannyboy

  • Predominant User
  • *
  • Feedback: +18/-3
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 854
Re: Presidential Election predictions
« Reply #62 on: November 06, 2008, 05:33:26 AM »

SJ,

We are broadly in agreement on the racial/gender differences issue.  It is entirely unreasonable for affirmative action to get someone a job which they are not capable of doing properly, to the detriment of the public.  Someone who is paraplegic cannot realistically expect to be a doctor or a nurse, nor can someone who is blind.

However, i think that if two people apply for a job, one of them me, and the other from a minority group which is under-represented in the relevant field, who are equally well-qualified and capable, then it is reasonable that the job should be given to the other guy.  That does not mandate for firefighters who can't lift a hose or nurses who are incapable of performing CPR, but it evens the balance a little, which has historically (and still is, to some extent) tilted heavily in favour of people like you and me.

Denying obvious biological realities is perfectly reasonable as long as the motives are pure.

No, this is the problem we had in our terrorism debates.  Understanding is not excusing.

Re: Hamas.

lol Hamas wants to drive Israel into the ocean.   this is like saying that Al Qaeda are people too.

Are Al Qaeda not people?  Just because someone is a violent irrational gynophobic religious nutjob does not mean that he is not also a human being with hopes for the future.  The statement that this guy made clearly aspires to an end to the conflict, as do many Israelis (some of whom, incidentally, have also made inflammatory statements regarding what should happen to Palestinians, so what was your point please?).  They think that Obama will help this to happen, although they would be right to be disturbed by some of the unequivocally pro-Israel statements he made on his campaign.  Blatant favouritism is not something that one looks for in a successful mediator.

Your take on this is that the terrorists love Obama because he will be soft on them, but isn't it interesting that we've had no Bin Laden video this time around?  Whatever else you say about him he's got some political savvy.  His 2004 tape hurt Kerry, and surely he knew that it would.  My conclusion - he wanted four more years of Bush.  Interesting that he seems to have had no preference to express this time.

But hey, when Russia is seeking to place its missles in France instead of Poland, don't worry, by that time perhaps we'll have time to elect another president to rescue ya'll.  ;) 

 :roll:  Well i'll certainly bear in mind your predictions.  But since the russian position is a direct response to Bush policies i think i'll wait and see what actual effect an Obama administration has on things before i start requesting US protection.

"i mean, i know you have a prophecy to fulfill and all, but really."

I don't know what you mean by this.


i mean that you now have both religious AND literary reasons for positively anticipating World War III.  i mean, i guess you'd also like your kids to grow up safe and happy just like Hamas would, but don't deny it - you'll be just a tiny bit pleased with yourself if things pan out like in the back-story to Fidelis, wont you.   [biggrin

Go on, admit it.
Logged
If God has a problem with the way i live my life then let him tell me, not you.

"Denying your own experience of reality is never a good step, no matter how many are arrayed against you" - Spero by AR Horvath

Anthony Horvath

  • Administrator
  • sntjohnny? I'm sntjohnny!
  • *
  • Feedback: +28/-41
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 8493
    • http://www.sntjohnny.com
Re: Presidential Election predictions
« Reply #63 on: November 06, 2008, 09:28:58 AM »

Isn't it fun to be in broad agreement on something?

While I would like to agree with your 'if two people apply for a job' scenario I'm not so sure that in practice you always get 'equally well-qualified and capable.'  From my own experience with the fire fighting thing I can't speak to the qualifications of those who beat me out.  I have a lone anecdote from someone who confided in me about the situation and he alluded that I was beat out by lesser qualified folks.  However, I know others who have lost out to affirmative action who have more impressive stories and at least in their cases we aren't talking about 'if two people equally well-qualified and capable.'  Not in practice.  So, it makes a great theory, but then there is the reality.

"No, this is the problem we had in our terrorism debates.  Understanding is not excusing."

Right, but let's understand the whole package, shall we?  Let us understand that Hamas does not merely want their children to grow up without fear of an Israeli bullet going through them, but they want Israel exterminated altogether.  With that extra bit of 'understanding' we can begin to understand why Israel might be expending bullets.

Perhaps you need to acquaint yourself with the Hamas Charter: http://www.mideastweb.org/hamas.htm

Check out articles 11,12, and 13 to see if you can get a sense of what it must be like to negotiate with such people, if you even wanted to.

"Are Al Qaeda not people?  Just because someone is a violent irrational gynophobic religious nutjob does not mean that he is not also a human being with hopes for the future."

No doubt.  My point is "What are their hopes for the future?"  On this you are being deliberately obtuse.  We are talking about people who believe that Islam should be the law of the land around the entire globe and that Sharia Law should supersede all others.   While I believe (more than you do) that there is a great swath of Muslims who share similar hopes 'as a human being' as any other person, there is no question about the Islamic ideology and its ultimate aims.

Yea, the Nazis were 'just people with hopes for the future' too.  Same with the Communists.   I have yet to see from you how 'understanding' does not 'excuse' those who would exterminate you if only they could, and, unchecked, will.

"The statement that this guy made clearly aspires to an end to the conflict"

lol you're so easy.  "Dear Western Liberal:  I know what we put in our charter, but please, believe me.  We do not go in for violence.  We wish only to be able to drink our coffee in peace."

It is undeniable that they 'clearly aspire to an end of the conflict.'  There is no question about that.  Clearly they think Obama will help them achieve that end.  Now, exactly what kind of end do they have in mind?

"Your take on this is that the terrorists love Obama because he will be soft on them, but isn't it interesting that we've had no Bin Laden video this time around?  Whatever else you say about him he's got some political savvy."

Actually a lot of the stuff I'm reading indicates that Obama did do what he did intentionally this year but that in 2004 Obama goofed.  Ie, he thought that he would help Kerry.  This time he knows better.

Isn't it clear that with no Bin Laden video that indicates Bin Laden wanted Obama?  Right?  Why would Bin Laden want Obama?

"i mean that you now have both religious AND literary reasons for positively anticipating World War III."

Literary reasons, perhaps.  I'm not the same brand of 'end times' Christian you're familiar with in regards to the Left Behind folks.  But seriously, I am not offering prophecy (that I am aware of).  I'm offering analysis.  See below.

"but don't deny it - you'll be just a tiny bit pleased with yourself if things pan out like in the back-story to Fidelis, wont you.   Very Happy"

:)

I would rather people saw the same lessons from history that I see and acted on them, thus preventing the Birth Pangs 'back-story' from occurring.  It would be bitter indeed to be found right as a biological holocaust swept my family away, no?
Logged
Today's Favorite Quote:  "The UN is like GI Joe - an organization with the goal of world peace. Difference being one of them actually achieves their goals."  EndBringer

Yesterday's Fav: "I love when it all comes down to semantics, because that usually means I get to pwn someone."  Sir Somebody Something, Deep Truth, Trent, Solaris Paradox

Copernicus

  • Paramount User!!
  • *
  • Feedback: +30/-18
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 2226
    • Naastika Blog
Re: Presidential Election predictions
« Reply #64 on: November 06, 2008, 02:31:40 PM »

Perhaps you need to acquaint yourself with the Hamas Charter: http://www.mideastweb.org/hamas.htm

Check out articles 11,12, and 13 to see if you can get a sense of what it must be like to negotiate with such people, if you even wanted to.

Nonsense.  Both sides have what appear to be equally intransigent positions.  That is true of every state of war that has ever existed, yet people have managed to resolve their differences through compromise.  The charter is nothing more than a statement of principles.  Neither side goes into such negotiations expecting to come out without some concessions to the other side, but neither wants to start out the negotiations from a position of weakness by making public concessions.

Quote
Yea, the Nazis were 'just people with hopes for the future' too.  Same with the Communists.   I have yet to see from you how 'understanding' does not 'excuse' those who would exterminate you if only they could, and, unchecked, will.

And yet we have managed to negotiate successfully many times with Communist nations.  Not all disagreements have to be settled by bellicose posturing and war. 

Quote
It is undeniable that they 'clearly aspire to an end of the conflict.'  There is no question about that.  Clearly they think Obama will help them achieve that end.  Now, exactly what kind of end do they have in mind?

One in which they can save face, live in peace, and achieve prosperity.  We all have the same goals on that score.  The difficulty is in coming up with a formula that can achieve those ends.  Usually, it is the "save face" part that is most difficult to resolve.
Logged
Philosophy is questions that may never be answered.  Religion is answers that may never be questioned.  --Anonymous

Anthony Horvath

  • Administrator
  • sntjohnny? I'm sntjohnny!
  • *
  • Feedback: +28/-41
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 8493
    • http://www.sntjohnny.com
Re: Presidential Election predictions
« Reply #65 on: November 06, 2008, 04:17:04 PM »

Nonsense?  Are you even reading what was written?  The word 'nonsense' is not an appropriate response to what was said.  It would be like saying that a stop sign is red and having you say "No, it tastes like an apple!"

"Both sides have what appear to be equally intransigent positions."

Fine, but let's not pretend that a Hamas endorsement of Obama does not illustrate how an Obama administration apparently appears to Hamas.

"The charter is nothing more than a statement of principles."

heh  right, and when I set out my statement of principles I always begin with a 'position of strength' that prefers the extermination of the other side.  You're right, that leaves lots of room for negotiation.  ;)  You're such a hoot, Cop.

Hamas/Hitler:  "We call for the extermination of the Jews in our charter, but we'd settle for concentration camps."

"One in which they can save face, live in peace, and achieve prosperity.  We all have the same goals on that score.  The difficulty is in coming up with a formula that can achieve those ends."

You are so unbelievably naive that you are positively dangerous.  The scary thing is that people just like you are now in power.
Logged
Today's Favorite Quote:  "The UN is like GI Joe - an organization with the goal of world peace. Difference being one of them actually achieves their goals."  EndBringer

Yesterday's Fav: "I love when it all comes down to semantics, because that usually means I get to pwn someone."  Sir Somebody Something, Deep Truth, Trent, Solaris Paradox

Anthony Horvath

  • Administrator
  • sntjohnny? I'm sntjohnny!
  • *
  • Feedback: +28/-41
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 8493
    • http://www.sntjohnny.com
Re: Presidential Election predictions
« Reply #66 on: November 06, 2008, 05:13:47 PM »

Quote
The scary thing is that people just like you are now in power.

Let me modify this.  I should say that the people in power used the people like you to get into power.  The only possible exception might be Obama himself who I take to be a radical and possibly a 'true believer.'  The rest of the crew just likes power and believes the quickest route is through well meaning but hopelessly out of touch with reality folks like you.   Whichever one Obama is, we're definitely in trouble.
Logged
Today's Favorite Quote:  "The UN is like GI Joe - an organization with the goal of world peace. Difference being one of them actually achieves their goals."  EndBringer

Yesterday's Fav: "I love when it all comes down to semantics, because that usually means I get to pwn someone."  Sir Somebody Something, Deep Truth, Trent, Solaris Paradox

Copernicus

  • Paramount User!!
  • *
  • Feedback: +30/-18
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 2226
    • Naastika Blog
Re: Presidential Election predictions
« Reply #67 on: November 06, 2008, 06:45:43 PM »

"Both sides have what appear to be equally intransigent positions."

Fine, but let's not pretend that a Hamas endorsement of Obama does not illustrate how an Obama administration apparently appears to Hamas.

I have made no statement about this and pretend nothing of the sort.  I think that you read too much into public statements.  Indeed, you read too much into just about everyone's statements.

Quote
"The charter is nothing more than a statement of principles."

heh  right, and when I set out my statement of principles I always begin with a 'position of strength' that prefers the extermination of the other side.  You're right, that leaves lots of room for negotiation.  ;)  You're such a hoot, Cop.

Nowhere does the charter call for the extermination of Jews.  The issue of the right of return is an old one, and neither side believes that the Palestinians are going to end up retaking the land that they were displaced from decades ago.  It doesn't matter what the charter says about such matters.  You are simply buying into the hysteria on one side of the dispute.  The US needs to restore its credibility with Palestinians that it can be an impartial broker of a peace deal.  Obama is in a much better position to do this than any previous President.  It is absolutely imperative for international security that he try to broker a peace deal.

Quote
"One in which they can save face, live in peace, and achieve prosperity.  We all have the same goals on that score.  The difficulty is in coming up with a formula that can achieve those ends."

You are so unbelievably naive that you are positively dangerous.  The scary thing is that people just like you are now in power.

You are so unbelievably cynical and out of touch that you are--well--pretty harmless.  There are a lot of people like you out there who have extremist views, but the process will go forward with better informed and more diplomatic participants.  Luckily, people like you are not in power and really haven't been.  Not even Bush is so naive as to think that war is the only solution to the problem.  He simply has no credibility with the Palestinians, and that makes it impossible for him to be a positive influence on negotiations.
Logged
Philosophy is questions that may never be answered.  Religion is answers that may never be questioned.  --Anonymous

The Sasquatch

  • Super User!
  • *
  • Feedback: +23/-1
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1725
    • Joe's Website
Re: Presidential Election predictions
« Reply #68 on: November 06, 2008, 09:50:04 PM »

I'm late to this thread, but I just had to ask...am I the only one who voted for "Superfly" Jimmy Snuka?

I hope not.
Logged

Anthony Horvath

  • Administrator
  • sntjohnny? I'm sntjohnny!
  • *
  • Feedback: +28/-41
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 8493
    • http://www.sntjohnny.com
Re: Presidential Election predictions
« Reply #69 on: November 06, 2008, 09:59:57 PM »

Saaaaaaasquatch.
Logged
Today's Favorite Quote:  "The UN is like GI Joe - an organization with the goal of world peace. Difference being one of them actually achieves their goals."  EndBringer

Yesterday's Fav: "I love when it all comes down to semantics, because that usually means I get to pwn someone."  Sir Somebody Something, Deep Truth, Trent, Solaris Paradox

The Sasquatch

  • Super User!
  • *
  • Feedback: +23/-1
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1725
    • Joe's Website
Re: Presidential Election predictions
« Reply #70 on: November 06, 2008, 10:19:06 PM »

EEEESSS JAAAAAAY
Logged

Copernicus

  • Paramount User!!
  • *
  • Feedback: +30/-18
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 2226
    • Naastika Blog
Re: Presidential Election predictions
« Reply #71 on: November 06, 2008, 10:57:46 PM »

I'm late to this thread, but I just had to ask...am I the only one who voted for "Superfly" Jimmy Snuka?

I hope not.

No wonder Ohio went for Obama.
Logged
Philosophy is questions that may never be answered.  Religion is answers that may never be questioned.  --Anonymous

Dannyboy

  • Predominant User
  • *
  • Feedback: +18/-3
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 854
Re: Presidential Election predictions
« Reply #72 on: November 10, 2008, 05:52:36 AM »

SJ,

Isn't it fun to be in broad agreement on something?

Yeah, it's like christmas come early.

While I would like to agree with your 'if two people apply for a job' scenario I'm not so sure that in practice you always get 'equally well-qualified and capable.'

So you oppose the manner that affirmative action is implemented in some cases, but support it as a concept?  Or you reject it entirely based on examples where it was implemented poorly?

Let us understand that Hamas does not merely want their children to grow up without fear of an Israeli bullet going through them, but they want Israel exterminated altogether.  With that extra bit of 'understanding' we can begin to understand why Israel might be expending bullets.

You seem to be under the impression that i am arguing that Hamas are nice people.  i'm not.  i'm saying that the simple fact of them being happy about Obama's election could easily be because they perceive that he will be more effective at breaking the deadlocked peace process than Bush has been.  You are arguing (or rather, insinuating) that their happiness demonstrates that they somehow 'know' that Obama will be a big softy in dealing with them (after all, he's been known to pal around with terrorists before).  i think that's you projecting your beliefs onto Hamas.

Yea, the Nazis were 'just people with hopes for the future' too.  Same with the Communists.   I have yet to see from you how 'understanding' does not 'excuse' those who would exterminate you if only they could, and, unchecked, will.

You don't want to understand these peoples' motivation?  Or you are convinced that you already know?  Maybe you do, but your condescending attitude to the pursuit of that understanding suggests that you haven't engaged in it too heavily yourself.  If we understand their motivation then we have a better chance of dealing with them appropriately.  In some cases that may entail wiping them off the face of the earth (i am more and more inclining that way when it comes the resurgent Taliban).  Happy now?

"The statement that this guy made clearly aspires to an end to the conflict"

lol you're so easy.  "Dear Western Liberal:  I know what we put in our charter, but please, believe me.  We do not go in for violence.  We wish only to be able to drink our coffee in peace."


Both parties in this conflict have shown a commitment to violent means in order to achieve their goals, so i don't really see your point there.  Are you suggesting that no Israelis want peace as well?

It is undeniable that they 'clearly aspire to an end of the conflict.'  There is no question about that.  Clearly they think Obama will help them achieve that end.  Now, exactly what kind of end do they have in mind?

Depends on the individual.  There will be some who can only invisage ending the conflict when Israel no longer exists (just as there are some members of the Knesset who want the Palestinians wiped out entirely).  By engaging in negotiations which have some benefit for all parties we aim to marginalise those people, in favour of the ones who are realistic about the balance between hard-line ideology and the actual needs of the people they represent.  It's worked in Northern Ireland.

"Your take on this is that the terrorists love Obama because he will be soft on them, but isn't it interesting that we've had no Bin Laden video this time around?  Whatever else you say about him he's got some political savvy."

Actually a lot of the stuff I'm reading indicates that Obama did do what he did intentionally this year but that in 2004 Obama goofed.  Ie, he thought that he would help Kerry.  This time he knows better.


Wow, "a lot of the stuff you're reading"?  Compelling!   [biggrin  Also, whether or not it was unintentional, please could you make an effort to not refer to Osama Bin Laden as 'Obama'.  It's confusing, and from a freudian point of view,... well, let's just say it doesn't do you any favours on the rational debate front.  It's almost as bad as David Ben Ariel with his constant need to emphasise Obama's middle name.

And you think that Bin Laden genuinely believed that he would help Kerry by endorsing him?  Excuse me while i ROFLMAO (or whatever).

Isn't it clear that with no Bin Laden video that indicates Bin Laden wanted Obama?  Right?  Why would Bin Laden want Obama?

Ah, he wants it both ways!  If a lack of endorsement for Obama in 2008 means that Bin Laden wants him to be president, then i can only assume that he wanted Bush to be president in 2004?  Is that right?

i would assume - and granted, this is only speculation - that this year Bin Laden didn't see much difference between the candidates in who will be the better recruiter for Al Qaeda, whereas in 2004 it was clear that Bush was the man for the job.  i suspect that you will disagree.

Later,
Dan
Logged
If God has a problem with the way i live my life then let him tell me, not you.

"Denying your own experience of reality is never a good step, no matter how many are arrayed against you" - Spero by AR Horvath

cimics

  • Prevalent User
  • *
  • Feedback: +9/-0
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1110
    • http://home.roadrunner.com/~cimics
Re: Presidential Election predictions
« Reply #73 on: November 10, 2008, 09:01:21 AM »

Danny --

Quote
i'm saying that the simple fact of them being happy about Obama's election could easily be because they perceive that he will be more effective at breaking the deadlocked peace process than Bush has been.  You are arguing (or rather, insinuating) that their happiness demonstrates that they somehow 'know' that Obama will be a big softy in dealing with them (after all, he's been known to pal around with terrorists before).

I think Hamas probably does think Obama will be soft.  That doesn't mean he will be or that he won't get results in the peace process despite Hamas.  The Israeli-Palestinian problem seems to be intractable though -- I'm not sure anyone can unravel it.

Quote
Are you suggesting that no Israelis want peace as well?

But I think SJ would concede that some Palestinians want peace; he might even concede a majority of them (but you'll have to ask him that).  But Hamas is a particular political subgroup of Palestinians that wants to drive Israel into the ocean, just as there are political subgroups of Israelis who want to do the same to the Palestinians, right?  Would you trust groups like that on either side in any sort of negotiation?  Since nothing else seems to work, it may be that we have to talk to groups like this, but it would be better to have negotiations between two groups who are actually at least open to the idea of a settlement short of completely destroying the other side.
Logged

Dannyboy

  • Predominant User
  • *
  • Feedback: +18/-3
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 854
Re: Presidential Election predictions
« Reply #74 on: November 10, 2008, 11:38:45 AM »

Cimics,

I think Hamas probably does think Obama will be soft.  That doesn't mean he will be or that he won't get results in the peace process despite Hamas.  The Israeli-Palestinian problem seems to be intractable though -- I'm not sure anyone can unravel it.

If religion were taken out of the mix i'm sure it would be easier to solve.  Doesn't seem likely to happen though.  i can't see any Hamas members realistically thinking that any US President will give them exactly what they want given your country's long and close association with Israel.  If they can't get exactly what they want (and the sane ones must know that they cannot) then an end to violence through compromise on both sides would be better than it continuing with no victory in sight for either side, surely.  If they think that Obama might give them that then they have every reason to welcome his election.

Quote
Are you suggesting that no Israelis want peace as well?

But I think SJ would concede that some Palestinians want peace; he might even concede a majority of them (but you'll have to ask him that).  But Hamas is a particular political subgroup of Palestinians that wants to drive Israel into the ocean, just as there are political subgroups of Israelis who want to do the same to the Palestinians, right?  Would you trust groups like that on either side in any sort of negotiation?

Well, up until now the mediator between two groups of people who would really like to kill each other has been a man who represents a base of fundamentalist christians who think that in the near future one side will be wiped out and the other will convert to Christianity or be wiped out.  That sort of thing really doesn't help negotiations.  And yes, as you say, there are plenty of Israelis whose primary objective is the complete destruction of the palestinians.  i don't think that they represent the majority any more than Hamas do, but by making diplomatic progress we can marginalise the crazy ones in both camps.

Since nothing else seems to work, it may be that we have to talk to groups like this, but it would be better to have negotiations between two groups who are actually at least open to the idea of a settlement short of completely destroying the other side.

Unfortunately it's hard to pick and choose.  Hamas was democratically elected to represent the palestinian people.  Now we could argue all day about whether or not that speaks well of the palestinian peoples judgement (bearing in mind that the Israelis elected Sharon and the Americans elected Bush, who have both also demonstrated a commitment to using violence to achieve their political ends).  My point, ultimately, was that the statement by Hamas does not really support SntJohnny's "Obama is a big wuss on national defence" argument, because the two options are that the guy who made the statement either believes a) that Obama will give Hamas everything he wants, in which case he is insane and therefore not a good guide to what will actually occur; or (more likely) b) that Obama will be more effective in brokering a peace deal which will be at least minimally satisfactory to all non-lunatic parties.  Any president perceived by the US public to be pandering to terrorists wouldn't last five minutes, and Obama is more than intelligent enough to know that, whatever his sympathies are.
Logged
If God has a problem with the way i live my life then let him tell me, not you.

"Denying your own experience of reality is never a good step, no matter how many are arrayed against you" - Spero by AR Horvath

cimics

  • Prevalent User
  • *
  • Feedback: +9/-0
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1110
    • http://home.roadrunner.com/~cimics
Re: Presidential Election predictions
« Reply #75 on: November 10, 2008, 03:25:23 PM »

Quote
a) that Obama will give Hamas everything he wants, in which case he is insane and therefore not a good guide to what will actually occur; or (more likely) b) that Obama will be more effective in brokering a peace deal which will be at least minimally satisfactory to all non-lunatic parties.

There is a third possibility: Hamas may think Obama's support for Israel will be weaker and thus allow for a more favorable environment for Hamas.  Fourth possibility: Hamas may think Obama won't do enough to support the more moderate Palestinian factions, thus allowing for a more favorable environment for Hamas.  Fifth possibility: Hamas may think that Obama's willingness to meet with it will increase its legitimacy, thus enabling it to raise more funds and obtain more support for its goal of driving the Israelis into the ocean.

And . . . Is Hamas a "non-lunatic party"?  If not, shouldn't we do what we can to marginalize Hamas and pave the way for more moderate parties to take control of the negotiations?  And if Hamas were to get stronger or create more problems, might that result in a backlash in Israel, causing hardliners to obtain power?
Logged

Dannyboy

  • Predominant User
  • *
  • Feedback: +18/-3
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 854
Re: Presidential Election predictions
« Reply #76 on: November 10, 2008, 04:19:49 PM »

Nobody said this was simple.   :-)

There is a third possibility: Hamas may think Obama's support for Israel will be weaker and thus allow for a more favorable environment for Hamas.

i think that roughly equates to my option (b).  Unless one is a paid-up member of AIPAC, it seems clear that America's narrative of the peace process has largely mirrored Israel's.  Arafat walked away from a fair compromise at Camp David, when the Israelis were willing to make peace, etc.  No mention that what he was being asked to sign up to was a palestinian state divided into four separate parts only accessible via Israel and where most natural resources, particularly water, were out of palestinian control.  Not to mention no right of return.  No one is likely to sign a peace agreement which is heavily stacked against them.  So, i think a US president a little less supportive of Israel would probably expedite the peace process, to everyone's eventual benefit.

Fourth possibility: Hamas may think Obama won't do enough to support the more moderate Palestinian factions, thus allowing for a more favorable environment for Hamas.

Maybe.  If Hamas are abiding by democratic process and not commiting human rights violations against the population then there is no reason for any outside players to engage with any other faction, moderate or otherwise.

Fifth possibility: Hamas may think that Obama's willingness to meet with it will increase its legitimacy, thus enabling it to raise more funds and obtain more support for its goal of driving the Israelis into the ocean.

They may think that, but does that mean it is true?  In many situations recently, the US attitude of blanket condemnation and no engagement with regimes it perceives to be hostile has done little except strengthen those regimes domestically.  Diplomatic engagement is not without risks, but the alternative is to stick with what hasn't been working thus far.

And . . . Is Hamas a "non-lunatic party"?

Sorry, i phrased that badly.  i meant that even in Hamas there will be more or less extreme factions (or 'parties').  Historically, the most effective way of dealing with such organisations (when they are involved in the political process and have significant public support) is to promote a shift towards the more moderate elements by offering rewards which benefit their way of operating.

If not, shouldn't we do what we can to marginalize Hamas and pave the way for more moderate parties to take control of the negotiations?

Wouldn't that count as 'subverting democracy'?

And if Hamas were to get stronger or create more problems, might that result in a backlash in Israel, causing hardliners to obtain power?

Maybe - i don't pretend to be able to predict the future.  i just think that the best policy for the US to pursue at this stage is to constructively engage with both parties and encourage the more democratic and progressive elements within them to come to some agreement which will stop israeli and palestinian kids from dying as a result of their elected leaders blowback.
Logged
If God has a problem with the way i live my life then let him tell me, not you.

"Denying your own experience of reality is never a good step, no matter how many are arrayed against you" - Spero by AR Horvath
Pages: 1 2 3 [4]   Go Up